The record

Second consecutive day the RESTRICTED regime's raised threshold (80 vs 75 normal) is the binding constraint, not a lack of real dislocation: MDB's S11 total would need only 2 more points (any 2 of its 7 already-scored dimensions, or a mid-single-digit option_implementation read) to clear at the RESTRICTED bar, and would clear easily at the NORMAL bar (75). state/macro-latest.json's R=4/RESTRICTED reading is now 2 days stale (as_of 2026-09-02) -- a macro-refresh run (desktop-only) is needed before this throttle reading can be treated as current; until then it is being applied conservatively (fail-closed, not re-derived) rather than assumed to have eased.

• PANWM2 · AI demand multiplier

  NO TRADE -- panic pattern qualifies but cannot confirm (NTM data gap); nearest miss of pattern type

• MDBM2 · AI demand multiplierscored 63-78/80 needed

  NO TRADE -- fails S11 threshold (80) even at the best-case bound (78) for the one unresolved dimension. S12-15 not attempted -- nothing left to price. Same conclusion as 2026-09-03: fundamentals and kill-switch status are unchanged day-over-day (kill_switch_check_2026-09-04: NOT TRIGGERED, stock partially recovering).

The RESTRICTED regime's raised threshold (80 vs 75 normal) is doing real, visible work today: both names that cleared the mechanical S7/S10 gates fell short of S11 by only 2 points even under the most generous possible assumption. In a NORMAL regime (threshold 75) both would have cleared to S12-15. This is v7's macro throttle functioning exactly as designed -- not a bug or a data gap, a deliberate higher bar during a high-valuation/tight-credit/contracting-liquidity regime.

• CRWDM2 · AI demand multiplierscored 63-78/80 needed

  NO TRADE -- fails S11 threshold (80) even at the best-case bound (78) for the one unresolved dimension. S12-15 not attempted -- nothing left to price.

• MDBM2 · AI demand multiplierscored 63-78/80 needed

  NO TRADE -- fails S11 threshold (80) even at the best-case bound (78) for the one unresolved dimension. S12-15 not attempted -- nothing left to price.

SPX 7758.18 in record territory with VIX 14.81 — lower and more complacent than the 15.15 print on 8/6. July CPI came in as expected and slightly cooler (headline +0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.2%, 2.5% y/y), and traders tilted toward the Fed HOLDING in September after a roughly 50-50 split the prior day — a dovish shift from 8/6, when ~58% odds of a hike were priced. AI infrastructure results (CRWV, SMCI, NBIS) are lifting tech. Per §4d this does NOT lower the threshold (macro never adds); it raises entry-timing scrutiny, and genuine panic is now scarce.

SPX 7709.96 near record highs with VIX at 15.15 — complacent risk appetite. Software (IGV) and semis (SMH) have both ripped over 1-3 months. The offset is hawkish: markets now price roughly one Fed HIKE by year-end and ~58% odds of a hike next month (down from 68% Monday), a materially different backdrop than July's cut expectations, even with the 10Y easing ~10bp this week to ~4.6% on Hormuz reopening. Today's violent software selloff was idiosyncratic earnings reaction, not risk-off. Per §4d, RISK-ON raises entry-timing scrutiny: genuine panic must be proven, not asserted.

SPX 7575 near highs and VIX down to 15.0 with markets rallying straight through the US-Iran escalation — risk appetite is high and complacent. The offset: 10Y crept up toward 4.55-4.6% and 'one more hike' talk is alive, so the duration headwind persists. RISK-ON raises entry-timing scrutiny (§4d): genuine panic is scarce and must be proven, not asserted.

June FOMC minutes (released 7/8 2pm) tilt hawkish: committee split with hike arguments aired, inflation upside risks 'the core contradiction', wait-and-see stance — reinforcing the duration leash alongside the Iran/oil inflation impulse. But VIX is 16.6 live, software is catching bids, and the dominant chips-over-software institutional trade is visibly unwinding. Neither panic nor euphoria.

Elevated long yields (10Y 4.48%) plus a fresh oil spike (Iran escalation, WTI +3% to $70.44) put renewed inflation risk on the table and keep duration assets on a leash; but VIX is only 16.1, breadth is broadening (RSP > SPY over 1mo), and no credit stress is visible. Neither panic nor euphoria.